Oscar Race Prediction

September is finally here. Thank god! Summer might be over but filmgoers have something else to look forward too over the coming months and I’m not talking about Christmas. Oscar season has finally arrived! After a very disappointing lacklustre summer of film which saw many huge blockbuster flops, cinema has become interesting once again. Over the next few months studios will begin to campaign their movies in hope of gaining that prestigious Oscar nomination. We've already seen some potential Oscar candidates premiere at the Sundance, Cannes and Venice Film Festival's but it's at Toronto where critics will gain their first major look at many of the top candidates. I wish I was there, maybe one year. Last year I attended the London Film Festival and saw the premiere of eventual Best Picture winner Argo. I passed Argo director Ben Affleck on the red carpet which was a pretty cool moment. I hope to go again this year. The festivals will begin to give some indication of where the Oscar race is heading but it's at the main award ceremonies such as the Golden Globes, BAFTA’s, Screen Actor’s Guild and Critics Choice that will indicate the eventual Academy Award winners. 



In this post I'm going to give a quick rundown of the films in which I believe stand the strongest chance at some Oscar success. So if you're interested in films, these are the movies in which you should be watching, hopefully. Of course, as always some of these films might flop completely while a surprise film might pop up out of nowhere and join the race. That is the beauty of the Oscar race, you never know what to expect. 



My favourite Academy Awards? The 83rd edition, it was the first one I actually watched live. My two favourite film makers Christopher Nolan and Darren Aronofsky were in the race along with filmmakers I hugely admire such as David Fincher, Danny Boyle and David O.Russell. I actually thought Fincher’s Social Network had Best Picture won but The King’s Speech took the award. Toy Story 3 was nominated for Best Picture, Jennifer Lawrence bust onto the scene and my favourite actor and actress Christian Bale and Natalie Portman won their first Oscars. Overall it was a good night.

Let's highlight eight films in which I believe stand the strongest chance of being successful during Oscar season and could potentially earn a Best Picture nomination.

 

American Hustle

 

The clear front-runner in my opinion. David O.Russell’s follow up feature to Silver Linings Playbook, which was my personal choice for Best Picture last year. Loosely based around the real-life FBI Abscam operation. O.Russell has an impressive track record with the Academy in recent years scoring 7 Oscar nominations for The Fighter followed by 8 Oscar nominations for Silver Linings Playbook which means he is clearly admired by the Academy. American Hustle will see O. Russell work once again alongside Christian Bale and Amy Adams (The Fighter) together with Bradley Cooper, Jennifer Lawrence and Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook). All five actors gained Oscar nominations under O.Russell’s direction with Christian Bale and Jennifer Lawrence going on to win their respective categories. The addition of two-time Oscar nominee Jeremy Renner makes a very impressive overall cast.

So why American Hustle? Well with the real-life story element, an impressive cast of former nominees, O.Russell's recent film success and the 1970's period setting. The film ticks most of the boxes the Academy likes. If American Hustle is anywhere near the quality of O.Russell's previous two movies then this has the potential to pick up some very big awards on Oscar night.

 

Potential Nominations

Best Picture
Best Director, David O.Russell
Best Actor in a Leading Role, Christian Bale
Best Actress in a Leading Role, Amy Adams
Best Actor in a Supporting Role, Bradley Cooper
Best Actress in a Supporting Role, Jennifer Lawrence
Best Original Screenplay
Best Editing
Original Score

 

August: Osage County

 

Another potential contender based on the Tony award and Pulitzer Prize-winning play of the same name. A story about the lives of the women of the Weston family, whose paths have diverged, until a family crisis bring them back to the Oklahoma house in which they grew up in and to the dysfunctional woman who raised them. This might only be director John Wells' second feature but with a cast including Meryl Streep, Julia Roberts, Ewan McGregor, Chris Cooper and Benedict Cumberbatch you can't go wrong. 



 

So why August: Osage County? Well being adapted from a successful award winning play is a huge factor combined with the star power of Academy favourite Meryl Streep, who has been nominated a record 17 times and Hollywood favourite Julia Roberts, the movie will create huge buzz no doubt. But when you add the backing of producers Harvey Weinstein, who led The King's Speech and The Artist to Best Picture victories in 2010 and 2011 and George Clooney producer of last years Best Picture winner Argo then the film will no doubt be in with a good chance come Oscar night.



 

Potential Nominations

Best Picture
Best Actress in a Leading Role, Julia Roberts
Best Actress in a Supporting Role, Meryl Streep
Best Actress in a Supporting Role, Margo Martindale
Best Adapted Screenplay

 

Captain Philips

 

Based on the true story of Captain Richard Philips who was taken hostage by Somali Pirates during the Maersk Alabama hijacking in 2009. Director Paul Greengrass best known for his work on The Bourne Supremacy and Ultimatum earned a Best Director nomination back in 2006 for his work on United 93, the film portrayed the events aboard United Airlines Flight 93 which was hijacked during the September 11 attacks. The casting of Tom Hanks as Philips will no doubt create the buzz this film needs.

So why Captain Philips? While I'm not completely convinced Captain Philips will be a major player in the Oscar race it's the type of movie the Academy usually goes for. A true story, directed by a former nominee for a similar type of movie combined with an Academy favourite and former two-time winner in the leading role, you're onto a potential winner.

 

Potential Nominees

Best Picture
Best Director, Paul Greengrass
Best Actor in a Leading Role, Tom Hanks
Best Adapted Screenplay

 

Gravity

 

The story of a medical engineer and an astronaut, who work together to survive after an accident leaves them adrift in space directed by acclaimed filmmaker Alfonso Cuaron (Children of Men, Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban). If you're not familiar with Alfonso Cuaron's work, I highly recommend checking out the single shot sequences in Children of Men, the longest single shot runs at 454 seconds during a battle sequence, the other two involving a birth scene and car sequence are equally as impressive. Phenomenal filmmaking from a talented director. The film stars Sandra Bullock and George Clooney, the only two actors in this 90 minute feature, which is quite a daunting task to keep the audience entertained for that period of time.

So why Gravity? Well it's an ambitious feature that could go either way. Cuaron scored 3 nominations for Children of Men but with the addition of former winners Sandra Bullock and George Clooney, this movie is bound to catch the Academy's eye. Clooney only has a small supporting role which means Bullock will be on the screen, on her own for lengthy durations of the movie. If pulled off successfully, Bullock could be in the running for a nomination. Gravity will certainly pick up some tech nominations, but can it be a major player in the race? We'll have to see.

 

Potential Nominations

Best Picture
Best Director, Alfonso Cuaron
Best Actress in a Leading Role, Sandra Bullock
Best Original Screenplay
Best Cinematography
Best Editing
Best Visual Effects

 

The Monuments Men

 

I've already mentioned George Clooney twice in this post; not my intention but the Academy loves him. If Clooney stands any major chance at the Oscars this year then it's most likely to come from his next directional effort based on a true story, adapted from the novel The Monuments Men: Allied Heroes, Nazi Thieves and the Greatest Treasure Hunt in History. How that fits on the front of a book I'll never know. A crew of art historians and museum curators unite in a race against time to recover renowned works of art stolen by Nazis before Hitler destroys them. Sound fun? The film posses an impressive cast with George Clooney, Matt Damon, Cate Blanchett, John Goodman, Bill Murray and Jean Dujardin, who beat Clooney to win Best Actor in 2011.

 
So why The Monuments Men? Well like I've already stated George Clooney is well liked by the Academy, he's a former winner and three-time nominee for acting. His directional effort Good Night and Good Luck scored a total of 6 Oscar nominations back in 2005 with a Director nomination for Clooney himself but Clooney's last feature The Ides of March only managed 1 Oscar nomination. I'm not fully convinced The Monuments Men will be a major player, it could go either way. But the World War II setting, the true story aspect of the film and impressive cast works in its favour.

 

Potential Nominations

Best Picture
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Original Score

 

Twelve Years a Slave

 

The true story of Solomon Northup, a free black man who was kidnapped and sold into slavery. Directed by British director Steve McQueen, not the famous movie star. This is McQueen's third feature film after the critical success of lower budget productions Hunger and Shame; the latter was unfairly overlooked by the Academy in 2011 in my opinion. If you haven't seen it, go watch it. The film stars regular McQueen collaborator Michael Fassbender joined by Brad Pitt, Benedict Cumberbatch, Paul Giamatti, Paul Dano, Quvenzhane Wallis, who became the youngest ever Oscar nominee at age 6, last year and Chiwetel Ejiofor in the leading role of Solomon Northup.

 

So why Twelve Years a Slave? Well the subject matter, the true story element, previous critical success and an impressive cast, all work in the films favour. Why does this movie stand more chance of appearing on the Academy's radar then McQueen's other features? The addition of Brad Pitt, who might only have a small role in the movie, but Pitt's production company Plan B is producing the movie which will help give it some more recognition during Oscar season. Hans Zimmer is doing the score which is always an added bonus.

 

Potential Nominations

Best Picture
Best Director, Steve McQueen
Best Actor in a Leading Role, Chiwetel Ejiofor
Best Actor in a Supporting Role, Michael Fassbender
Best Actress in a Supporting Role, Lupita Nyong'o
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Original Score

 

The Secret Life of Walter Mitty

 

A film which hasn't really been discussed as a potential Oscar threat, but in my opinion could be the surprise hit of the year. The potential Hugo or Life of Pi of this awards season, the film which catches the magic of going to the movies and is labelled the feel good movie amongst the Best Picture nominees. Surprisingly directed by Ben Stiller, the film tells the story of an office worker who lives inside fantasy worlds where he gets to live an adventurous life while romancing his co-worker. Stiller's last directional effort Tropic Thunder actually scored an Oscar nomination back in 2008. The film stars Ben Stiller, Kristen Wiig and Sean Penn in this remake of a 1947 movie based on a 1939 short story written by James Thurber.

 
So why The Secret Life of Walter Mitty? To be honest I hadn't actually heard anything about this movie until last week when I stumbled across the trailer on YouTube. The trailer doesn't really give much away in terms of plot but I was blown away. The cinematography looks beautifully shot and the use of Dirty Paws by Of Men and Monsters gets a thumbs up from me. I have no real reason why I believe Walter Mitty stands a chance but I believe it's the movie which could cause an upset amongst the current favourites. Do I honestly believe Ben Stiller has the potential to win an Oscar? Yes, yes I do. 



Potential Nominees

Best Picture
Best Director, Ben Stiller
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Cinematography
Best Editing

 

The Wolf of Wall Street

 

Martin Scorsese and Leonardo DiCaprio re-team together for their fifth collaboration. Based on the true story of Jordan Belfort's memoir of the same name, the story follows Belfort and his rise to a wealthy stockbroker living the high life to his fall involving crime, corruption and the federal government. I personally am very excited to see Martin Scorsese return to what he does best, crime dramas! Nominated 7 times for Best Director for his work on films such as Taxi Driver, Raging Bull, Goodfellas and The Departed with surprisingly only one win doesn't stop the fact Scorsese is one of the greatest directors of all-time. The screenplay is written by Terrence Winter, creator of Boardwalk Empire and the writer/producer of The Sopranos. The cast has Leonardo DiCaprio, Jonah Hill and Matthew McConaughey in the major roles.

 
So why The Wolf of Wall Street? Well Martin Scorsese is a well respected director returning to the genre that made him famous. The genre that won him Best Director and Best Picture back in 2006 for The Departed. A respected writer Terence Winter on a real life story only boosts its potential. Add in Leonardo DiCaprio as your leading man and you're on to a winner. The main question going into this Oscar season will be, can Leonardo DiCaprio finally win an Oscar? After 3 previous nominations but snubbed in recent years could this finally be the one? In my opinion Leonardo DiCaprio will have some stiff competition but judging by the trailer, he looks very good while having alot of fun with the role instead of being too serious so it's a different approach which the Academy like. Note - The use of Kanye West's Black Skinhead in the trailer just makes you want to go and party like they do. This looks alot of fun.

 

Potential Nominations

Best Picture
Best Director, Martin Scorsese
Best Actor in a Leading Role, Leonardo DiCaprio
Best Actor in a Supporting Role, Jonah Hill
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Editing

 

What Else?

 

After highlighting the main contenders, let's switch our focus to the movies which will be involved in the Oscar race but mainly in the acting categories. Like I have stated, the Academy love movies which portray real-life figures, well this year we have plenty more to choose from. Idris Elba portrays Nelson Mandela in Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom. If the Academy nominated Morgan Freeman in 2009 for his portrayal of Mandela in the forgettable Invictus, no offense Clint Eastwood, then Idris Elba should have no problem earning his first nomination. Judging by the trailer Elba doesn't just look better then Freeman, Elba looks phenomenal! With Harvey Weinstein producing the movie, Elba stands a strong chance of being nominated. Naomie Harris could also be in with a shot for a Best Supporting Actress nomination. Here's the trailer to judge for yourself.

 

Another British actor making his third appearance already in this post is Benedict Cumberbatch who swaps a supporting role for a starring one as WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange in The Fifth Estate. I'll admit I don't know too much about Julian Assange so I YouTube'd some videos of him and it seems Cumberbatch has nailed him perfectly, the accent, the mannerisms. Cumberbatch had a break out year, could it lead all the way to a nomination? Here is the trailer for The Fifth Estate.

 

Emma Thompson and Tom Hanks star as P.L Travers and Walt Disney respectively in Saving Mr. Banks which centres around the story of P.L Travers and her negotiations with Walt Disney around the adaptation of her novel Mary Poppins in 1961. The Academy could really go for this movie, director John Lee Hancock scored a Best Picture nomination and led Sandra Bullock to a Best Actress win for The Blind Side back in 2009. Could Saving Mr. Banks and Emma Thompson do the same?

 

A quick rundown of the other potential acting nominees to watch out for. Naomi Watts could be in line for back to back nominations with her portrayal of Princess Diana in Diana. Chris Hemsworth and Daniel Bruhl portray Formula One driver’s James Hunt and Niki Lauda in Ron Howard's Rush. Nicole Kidman stars as Hollywood starlet, Grace Kelly in Grace of Monaco. The Butler loosely based on the real-life 34 year tenure of White House butler, Eugene Allen stars Forest Whitaker and Oprah Winfrey. Matthew McConaughey stars in Dallas Buyers Club based on the true life tale of Ron Woodroof, a man diagnosed with HIV. Steve Carrell and Mark Ruffalo star in Moneyball director Bennett Miller's Foxcatcher, based on Olympic wrestling gold medallist Mark Schultz's autobiography of how paranoid schizophrenic John DuPont killed his brother. Other movies which could be in contention for portraying fiction characters include Scott Cooper’s Out of the Furnace starring Christian Bale, Casey Affleck, Woody Harrelson, Zoe Saldana, Forest Whitaker and Willem Dafoe. Cooper's last feature film Crazy Heart scored 3 Oscar nominations including a Best Actor win for Jeff Bridges. Ridley Scott’s The Counselor starring Michael Fassbender, Penelope Cruz, Cameron Diaz, Javier Bardem and Brad Pitt written by No Country for Old Men author Cormac McCarthy could be a hit or miss. The film follows a lawyer who finds himself in over his head when he gets involved in drug trafficking. Woody Allen’s Blue Jasmine could see Cate Blanchett score a Best Actress nomination while Kate Winslet and Josh Brolin should also be in contention for their roles in acclaimed director Jason Reitman’s Labor Day. Reitman’s previous two movies Juno and Up in the Air have a combined 10 Oscar nominations between them.

 

What we already know?

 

A few films have already premiered at the Cannes Film Festival and Sundance Film Festival earlier this year, which have created some buzz. All is Lost stars Robert Redford as a man lost at sea, premiered at the Cannes Film Festival. Redford is the only cast member in the film which has almost no dialogue. Redford received a standing ovation for his performance after the film premiered and could be in contention for a Best Actor nomination. Nebraska directed by Alexander Payne who scored 5 Oscar Nominations for his 2011 film The Descendants. The story follows an aging, booze-addled father who makes the trip from Montana to Nebraska with his estranged son in order to claim a million dollar Mega Sweepstakes marketing prize. Bruce Dern earned the Best Actor award for his performance at Cannes could he also earn an Oscar nomination? Inside Lleywn Davis the latest film from the acclaimed Coen Brothers, won the Grand Prix award at Cannes, follows a week in the life of a young singer as he navigates the Greenwich Village folk scene of 1961 starring Oscar Isaac, Carey Mulligan, John Goodman and Justin Timberlake. Now last year a small Austrian movie Amour, premiered at Cannes, won the Palme d'Or before scoring 5 Oscar nominations including Best Picture. Could we see a repeat this year? Well I personally think it's unlikely but two movies which stand a strong chance of scoring an Oscar nomination for Best Foreign Film are Blue is the Warmest Colour which won the Palme d’Or this year. While 2011 Oscar nominee Berenice Bejo was awarded Best Actress for her role in The Past at Cannes, can either film follow in Amour's footsteps? We'll have to wait and see.

 

Moving on to the Sundance Film Festival. Could any film emulate the success of last year's Sundance breakout out hit, Beast of the Southern Wild which scored 4 Oscar nominations including Best Picture? Well there are two movies which stand the most chance of repeating this success. Fruitvale Station which won the Grand Jury Prize at Sundance which led Harvey Weinstein to acquire the distribution rights. If you haven't realised by now, Harvey is sort of a big deal, when he produces a film, it usually means business. Fruitvale Station is based on the true story of Oscar Grant, a young man who was killed by police officer Johannes Mehserle at the Fruitvale Bay Area Station in Oakland, California, Michael B. Jordan and Octavia Spencer star. Before Midnight the third instalment in the Before Series which like its two predecessors received widespread critical acclaim. If you've never seen Before Sunrise or Before Sunset, go watch them! Before Sunset earned a Best Adapted Screenplay nomination in 2004 which is probably the only realistic chance Before Midnight stands at a nomination. But from a personal perspective it would be fantastic to see Ethan Hawke and Julie Delpy nominated for their roles as Jesse and Celine, which they first starred in 18 years ago. One can dream right?

 

My Suggestions

 

Lastly I would like to mention three movies which might not necessarily make any impact on the Oscar race, apart from maybe some screenplay nominations. But they are my three most anticipated movies for the rest of the year. Joseph Gordon Levitt’s directional/writer debut Don Jon which co-stars Scarlett Johansson tells the story of a New Jersey guy dedicated to his family, friends, and church, develops unrealistic expectations from watching porn and works to find happiness and intimacy with his potential true love. I’m a big fan of Joseph Gordon Levitt's work so I’m excited to see how he transitions into directing. As an aspiring writer/director myself it’s always good to see the work of people I admire following the same action.

 

The Spectacular Now adapted from Tim Tharp’s novel of the same name, by the 500 Days of Summer writers. A hard-partying high school senior whose philosophy on life changes when he meets the not-so-typical “nice girl”, Miles Teller and Shailene Woodley won the Dramatic Special Jury Award for Acting at Sundance for their role in this movie. This is my most anticipated movie of the year.

 

Lastly we have Her from acclaimed director Spike Jonez. I’ve always been a fan of the obscure movies Jonez makes. A lonely writer who develops an unlikely relationship with his newly-purchased operating system that’s designed to meet his every need starring Joaquin Phoenix, Amy Adams, Olivia Wilde, Rooney Mara and Scarlett Johansson. Her could be a real potential sleeper hit during the Oscar season or my new reality if I don’t end this post.

 

Thank you for reading the first entry in my blog. I hope you have enjoyed and watch some of the movies I have mentioned when they come to a cinema near you. I’ll be reviewing them over the next few months when they are released, so if you want to hear my thoughts then you’ll find them here along with any other films I might view in the cinema in the coming months. To play us out I’ve got Lana Del Rey’s Young and Beautiful from The Great Gatsby soundtrack which will surely win the Oscar for Best Original Song, with Lana performing live at the ceremony unless you’re a fan of Britney Spears Ooh La La from Smurfs 2 *facepalm*